AI Is an Industrial Revolution: between enthusiasm and excess, focus on the long term

Within two years, artificial intelligence has gone from a laboratory curiosity to the driving force behind global markets. Beneath the enthusiasm lies one question: are AI stocks really worth that much?

By Francesco Megna*

Since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, the entire tech ecosystem, from the giants to the small developers, has set out on the path of intelligent automation. Companies providing the infrastructure for this revolution, such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Super Micro Computer, have seen their shares soar.
Investors speak of a new "digital golden age", but beneath the excitement a question lingers: are AI stocks really worth so much?

The numbers tell a clear story: many AI-related companies trade at earnings multiples not seen in years. Nvidia, for example, has solid profits, but that growth already seems to have been priced in by the market, and this could expose the stock to the risk of a deep correction under certain market conditions; Super Micro is experiencing rapid but cyclical expansion; Microsoft, on the other hand, is growing steadily, with diversified revenues. Meanwhile, the AI semiconductor sector shows a price-to-sales ratio at its highest since the dot-com bubble. And yet, the companies involved today are not just selling dreams, but generating earnings and dominating markets.

It should be said that every new technology generates enthusiasm, but also excess. Today, practically every tech company describes itself as "AI-powered", even when artificial intelligence is more marketing than substance. On the stock market, attention is focused on a few names: Nvidia and Microsoft alone account for an ever-larger share of the total market capitalisation of the S&P 500. A sign of strength, but also of systemic fragility, should the market reverse course.

Of course, not all AI companies are the same, and analysts distinguish between those selling "picks and shovels" - in other words infrastructure such as chips, cloud and data centres - and those developing applications that are still searching for a business model. In the first group, companies such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon are generating tangible profits; in the second, companies such as Palantir or many listed start-ups live more on expectations than on earnings. And yet, according to several analysts, the situation is not comparable to that of 2000, when any company that listed on the Nasdaq and had the suffix “net” in its name would have seen its share price rise 100-fold in the complete absence of any kind of earnings. Back then, in fact, many Internet companies had neither revenues nor customers; today, AI is generating real value and redrawing entire industrial sectors, and it is an industrial revolution, not just a passing fad.

As happens in all revolutions, some will win and many will be left behind. In the short term, the risk of corrections is real: valuations are being pushed by extremely high expectations and interest rates that remain elevated; but in the long term, AI remains a strategic pillar of the global economy. For investors, the lesson is clear: selection and patience. Better to back those building the foundations of artificial intelligence than those promising to conquer it. The market, therefore, is pricing in enormous future growth, but not infinite growth. AI is not just hype: it is the next global technological infrastructure.

* Commercial director, primary hub of a banking group, coordinator of private and business managers