Global growth slowing but supported by the earnings cycle and central banks

Growth is slowing, but it is being supported by a solid earnings cycle and accommodative central bank policy. In Europe, earnings are expected to grow by 11% in 2026, the Italian stock market is positive, with buying opportunities on pullbacks.

by Andrea Scauri, manager of the Lemanik High Growth fund

The scenario ahead is one of a slowdown in global growth, but still in a resilient environment, thanks to a solid and geographically well diversified earnings cycle and to monetary policy geared toward financial stability and becoming progressively more accommodative, with central banks ready to cut rates as soon as macroeconomic conditions allow. Over the coming months, earnings could be partly weighed down by possible disruptions to the supply chain and by higher energy costs linked to the conflict in Iran. However, these pressures will be temporary and largely absorbed, in line with a scenario of a conflict that does not last long.

In Europe, earnings are expected to grow by 11% in 2026 after a substantially flat 2025, in a context of valuations that are still relatively attractive (expected 2026-27 P/E at 15x-14x versus 22x-19x in the United States). As a result, it is wise to maintain a moderately constructive view on equity markets, while expecting a context marked by higher volatility and increasing fragility in some sectors, such as consumer goods. Geopolitical tensions and risks to supply chains – linked in particular to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and to persistent energy shortages – are sources of uncertainty that could quickly intensify and affect company margins.

The ECB is maintaining a wait-and-see approach, pending greater visibility. In the United States, the picture remains stronger, with consumption and the labour market still robust and growth, although slowing, remaining above potential (Q1 2026 GDP estimated at around 2.5–2.8% on an annualised basis). But the Fed also appears inclined to stay on hold, monitoring energy-related risks. In this scenario, gold remains a key asset, not only as a hedge against inflation, but above all as protection against a possible deterioration in sovereign debt credibility and the risk of future monetisation. The possibility of extraordinary interventions by central banks reinforces gold's role as a store of value "outside the system".

In Italy, the FTSE All-Share index is up +6% year to date and +11% over the last month, driven mainly by the strong performance of the technology (STM +99%, Technoprobe +42%) and energy sectors (Saipem +89%, Tenaris +64%, d'Amico +59%, Eni +48%). Over the past month, the rebound in the financial sector has also contributed to the advance, with the banking index up +13% (although still -3% year to date), supported both by the consolidation of expectations for higher rates for longer and by renewed speculative appeal, linked to the potential start of a new phase of M&A in the sector.

Among the preferred investment themes are renewable energy, given the expected rise in energy prices in 2026 to around 140 €/MWh from the previous 100-110 €/MWh, with Alerion the best performer (+38% since the end of March); STM, in line with the acceleration in semiconductor demand linked to artificial intelligence; Diasorin, which, after very negative news over recent months, has reached a price level the manager considers a very interesting entry point; Nexi stands out for having one of the market's most significant dividend yields (8%, for €350 million, with a 12-month post spin-off P/E of 6x); Telecom Italia/Poste, supported by a better competitive landscape and a more straightforward governance structure with the entry of Poste Italiane, and, in infrastructure, Danieli Sav., driven by the investments planned by the German fund for energy, digital and infrastructure renewal.