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Economic outlook

Poland, growth tested by institutional conflict

The conflict between the president, the government and the Constitutional Tribunal does not erase the strength of the Polish economy. But, if prolonged, it can make credit and investment more expensive, complicate the repair of the public finances and weaken confidence. The main risk is growth below the country’s potential

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Stock markets

US midterms, three scenarios for rates, equities, the dollar and gold. Trump’s foreign policy agenda set to endure

A divided Congress could curb new fiscal expansion; a Democratic victory in both chambers would strengthen oversight of the administration; a Republican confirmation would reopen room for Trump’s agenda. For markets, the key factors will be the implications for inflation, debt and earnings, together with the gap between the result and expectations

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